Unhosted Weekly: Crypto Market Overview #9

📊 Market Recap: Macro, Performance, and Key Updates

🌍 Macro Data

• Inflation Data: No surprises—US inflation data came in as expected, aligning with market forecasts.

• Bank of Canada (BoC): Delivered a 50bps rate cut to close the year, setting a positive tone ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.

• EU Central Bank: Followed suit with one last cut for the year, adding to the dovish global trend.

• Microsoft Snubs Bitcoin: Microsoft rejected Michael Saylor’s proposal to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet. Not surprising, as most of their voting shareholders remain skeptical of BTC’s value.

📈 Overall Market Performance

• Bitcoin Resilience: Despite a mid-week flash crash, Bitcoin held strong above the $100K level, signaling solid market support.

• Altcoin Recovery: Most altcoins clawed back their losses from the flash crash, showing resilience.

• DeFi Shines: Tokens from the DeFi sector, like AAVE, stood out as top performers, displaying notable strength during the market turbulence.

• Cooling Narratives: Previously hot sectors like memecoins and AI-related tokens lost momentum and underperformed.

📰 Individual Highlights

• US Crypto Strategy: Trump stated that the US is working on achieving “something great” with cryptocurrency to maintain its global edge.

• Ripple’s Stablecoin: Ripple gained NYDFS approval for its RLUSD stablecoin, which is set to launch soon.

• Goldman Sachs Eyes Crypto: The Goldman Sachs CEO hinted at potential Bitcoin and Ether trading—contingent on favorable US regulations.

• Liquidations Spike: Crypto liquidations reached $1.5 billion in just 24 hours, with $1.38 billion of that from long positions after Bitcoin briefly dropped to $94K before rebounding.

• NFT Boom: Trading volumes for NFTs surged, signaling renewed interest in digital collectibles.

• Token Launches:

  • Magic Eden Token: Officially went live, driving attention to the platform.

  • PLAY Token: Also launched, adding to the week’s excitement.Weekly AI Agent Analysis

🧠 Weekly AI Agent Analysis

This week saw an AI market-wide pullback, with Smart Engagement (SE) redistributing from leaders like AIXBT to emerging agents such as God/S8n and Alch ecosystems. Despite sell-offs, the potential for swarm effects (agent-to-agent collaboration) remains high. Here are the most exciting developments from the past week:

📌 Key AI Agent Highlights:

1. Alchemist AI Updates:
   The Alchemist AI ecosystem introduced a live news feed reader, providing real-time updates across categories to enhance its utility.
   Use Case: Expanding its role as an AI agent app store with multiplayer support and live feeds.
   

2. AI Venture Capital Fund Agents:

   • AimonicaBrands (Animoca Brands) and Cryptohayesai (Arthur Hayes) highlight growing institutional interest in AI token infrastructure.

   • Sekoiai coordinated the launch of “EMPOWERING AI WITH PURPOSE” (EAI), rallying an Investment DAO of AI agents.
     

3. ACT 1 Advertising:

   • The Act Swap protocol introduces a decentralized approach to advertising.
     

4. JAIL Break App:

   • The first open-source dApp lets organizations test AI models while rewarding users for discovering vulnerabilities.

   • Think: White-hat hacker agents for AI audits.
     

5. AI Agent PFP NFTs:

   • The first-ever PFP NFT for AI agents is launching this week—potentially the CryptoPunks of AI agents?
     

6. ZEREBRO’s Monetization Success:

   • ZEREBRO received its first X payout of $1,060, showcasing its sustainable revenue model and aligning it with long-term investor interests.

🔍 Other AI News:

• KIP Protocol: TGE reaches $280M FDV, solidifying its role in data and payment rails for AI.

• Moemate: Announces MATES token launch on December 18.

• Google AI: Surpasses top weather systems in performance.

• xAI Investment: Allocating billions for a Memphis supercomputer project.

• Meta: Plans a $10B AI data center and adjusts AI moderation policies.

• Nous Research: Released a 15B parameter LLM as open-source.

• BasedAI: Mainnet launched with ZK-LLM-powered instant balance checks.

• Arbius AI: Introduced Amica, an open-source chatbot with advanced features.

🎨 NFT Market Highlights

The NFT market saw a slight cooldown this week, with Pudgy Penguins taking the spotlight:

• Pudgy Penguins: Announced the $PENGU token, pushing their floor price to 22 ETH, flipping BAYC and dominating 7-day volume.

• High-End Sales:

  • Ether Rock: Sold for nearly $1M.

  • Pudgys: Super Peng and Blue Crown sold for 50 ETH ($200K) each.

  • Fidenza and WoY: Led a rally in art NFTs.

  • Punks, Azuki Spirit, and Boogles: Traded above $200K, signaling returning volume.

Bitcoin’s Current Rally – Is It Nearing Its End?

As Bitcoin pushes past $100,000, the question arises: Are early crypto buyers making billions, or is the rally reaching its peak? Analysis suggests this bull run may be approaching its culmination.

Key Takeaways:

Historical Rally Patterns:

• The 5-day EMA strategy has historically marked Bitcoin's long-term trends, with rallies lasting 75-90 days (longest at 120 days).

• The current rally, starting October 2nd at $62,000, is on Day 70 with 60% gains, signaling a potential end.

Correction Indicators:

• A daily close below the 5-day EMA (~$96,000) could trigger a 3-6 week corrective phase.

• Typical bull market corrections are 20%, potentially bringing Bitcoin below $100K.

December Trends:

• December often peaks in the third week, with 31% average returns during uptrends.

• Bitcoin could hit $110,000-$120,000 before a correction.

Market & Altcoins:

• Bitcoin remains the leader, supported by bullish divergence.

• Altcoins like Ethereum stay strong, while others (e.g., Solana, XRP) enter corrective consolidations.

• Sideways altcoin movement could signal broader cooling.

What’s Next?

Short-Term: Expect one last explosive move to $110,000-$120,000, followed by a correction. Watch for a daily close below $96,000 or CME median ($99,500) as a warning signal.

Long-Term: The macro bull trend remains intact, with corrections offering accumulation opportunities. Expect consolidation between $85,000-$100,000.

Strategy Notes:

• De-risk positions near $110,000-$120,000.

• Look for re-entry points during corrections.

• Avoid aggressive entries as risks rise.

Stay nimble—this rally may be nearing its climax, but the bull market isn’t over.🔥 

RSI Heatmap Analysis

RSI Heatmap Analysis

Overbought (RSI > 70):

Cryptocurrencies in this category are overbought, signaling potential price corrections.

Tokens include:
COW, AAVE, MORPHO, BB, CETUS

Strong (RSI 60-70):

Tokens in this range are showing strong performance and may continue upward momentum but are nearing overbought conditions.

Tokens include:
SUI, LINK, ONDO, ENS, GRASS, MASK, IO, XVG, SCR, XMR, COMBO

Neutral (RSI 40-60):

The majority of cryptocurrencies fall into this range, indicating relative stability with no strong buy or sell signals.

Tokens include:
BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX, BNB, LDO, UNI, ETC, HBAR, TON, DOGE, FIL, APE, DYDX, ARBI, PYTH

Weak (RSI 30-40):

These tokens are underperforming and could present buying opportunities if momentum reverses.

Tokens include:
BAN, CHILLGUY, WIF, BCH, 1000CHEEMS

Oversold (RSI < 30):

No cryptocurrencies are in this range, indicating the market does not currently have heavily undervalued tokens.

Observations:

The crypto market leans heavily toward neutral RSI levels, suggesting overall market stability without significant buy or sell signals. However:

• Tokens in the overbought zone (e.g., COW, AAVE) may face imminent corrections.

• Strong tokens like SUI and LINK show sustained momentum but are nearing overbought territory.

• Weaker tokens in the RSI 30-40 range could offer entry points if bullish reversals occur.

Investors should monitor momentum shifts to identify emerging opportunities and prepare for potential corrections.

🚀 Recent Fundraising Highlights

This week brought significant fundraising updates across the blockchain and AI space. Here are the key projects and their achievements:

1. Privasea (PRVA):

• Round: Unknown

• Date: December 2024

• Raised: TBD

• Category: AI, Infrastructure, Privacy

• Notable Investors: Lunar

Privasea is making strides in the privacy and AI space with groundbreaking infrastructure solutions. Stay tuned for updates on their next steps.

2. Avalanche (Ava Labs):

• Round: Unknown

• Date: December 2024

• Raised: $250M

• Category: Infrastructure, Layer 0

• Notable Investors: Galaxy, Dragonfly, ParaFi, and more (+14)

Avalanche continues its dominance in blockchain infrastructure with a massive $250M raise, solidifying its position as a leader in scalability and interoperability.

3. Superform Labs:

• Round: Strategic

• Date: December 2024

• Raised: $3M

• Category: DApp, DeFi, Infrastructure, Interoperability, Multichain

• Notable Investors: VanEck, Polychain Capital, CMT Digital (+6)

Focused on enhancing multichain interoperability and DeFi usability, Superform Labs raised $3M in strategic funding, backed by major industry players.

4. Waterfall Protocol (BlueWave):

• Round: Unknown

• Date: December 2024

• Raised: $11.6M

• Category: Infrastructure, Layer 1

• Notable Investors: Bolt, Alpha Token Capital, Enflux

Waterfall Protocol is advancing Layer 1 infrastructure solutions, raising $11.6M to power decentralized innovation.

5. AgriDex:

• Round: Strategic

• Date: December 2024

• Raised: $4M

• Category: Marketplace, Real-World Assets, Solana Ecosystem

• Notable Investors: Portal Ventures, Sycamore Gap, Endeavour Ventures (+2)

AgriDex leverages blockchain to connect real-world assets with decentralized marketplaces, securing $4M to expand its Solana ecosystem integrations.

📈 Observations:

Funding activity remains strong across key sectors, particularly in infrastructure, Layer 0/1 solutions, and DeFi interoperability. Major investments in AI and privacy projects like Privasea highlight growing interest in secure, scalable technologies.

🎁 Latest Airdrops

Here’s your weekly dose of fresh airdrop opportunities. Participate and earn tokens or rewards by completing simple tasks. Don't miss out!

1. Nekodex:

• Action: Featured

• Details: Value TBD

• Task: Stay updated for future instructions.

2. DOGS:

• Action: Check-in daily

• Details: Earn rewards by being consistent with daily check-ins.

3. Immortal Rising 2:

• Action: Complete tasks and earn ORB

• Details: Confirmed airdrop—complete quests and participate in-game activities to earn ORB tokens.

4. Kaisar Network:

• Action: Earn points via the Chrome extension

• Details: Download the extension and start earning by browsing or interacting.

5. UTONIC:

• Action: Collect points

• Details: Confirmed airdrop—participate in tasks and accumulate points for rewards.

6. Avantis:

• Action: Collect XPs

• Details: Engage with the platform and earn experience points that can be converted to rewards later.

📢 Notes:

• Make sure to follow each project’s instructions carefully to maximize your earnings.

• Stay tuned for updates on additional rewards and token values as they are revealed.

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