👀 Last week in Crypto

📈 Bitcoin Recovers to $87,500

📈 According to Truflation, inflation is 1.4%

This is significantly below the Fed's target level on which it bases its interest rate decisions.

So, if the data doesn't get worse by May 7 (the Fed meeting), the Fed will likely be forced to cut rates.

Low interest rates are historically good for Bitcoin and crypto because markets get "cheap money" and therefore additional liquidity.

🐳 Whales have been stockpiling for the past few weeks

Since the beginning of March, more than 60 new wallets with more than 1,000 BTC have appeared. Their number has increased from 2,037 to 2,107. The last time such a value was reached was during the market surges in November and December. The maximum is just below 2,500, which was reached in February 2021.

📊 Hyperliquid already occupies 70% of the market share of decentralized perpetual futures

It's still a long way from centralized competitors like Binance.

⛽️ Meanwhile, Ethereum fees have dropped to new lows — for example, users pay an average of only $0.03 to transfer USDT .

At the same time, in some L2 networks, fees are now even higher than in the main Ethereum network.

Bitcoin’s Spring Breakout: Are We Watching the First Roar of a Bigger Bull?

Over Easter weekend, Bitcoin did something subtle but important: it snapped a three‑week corrective down‑trend and vaulted straight back toward the $90 k zone. That move—plus a few under‑the‑hood macro flashes—has traders whispering the same question:

Is this the moment Bitcoin decouples and begins the “parabolic leg” everyone expected—but never got—during the first half of the cycle?

Below is a quick tour of the price action, the macro dog‑whistle you might have missed, and why the next 5 % move could rewrite the trajectory for the rest of 2025.

1. The Chart: From Breakdown‑Watch to Breakout‑Watch

✅ Reclaiming the 50‑Week Moving Average

Bitcoin flirted with disaster in late March, briefly losing its 50‑WMA (a line it typically treats as trampoline support in bull cycles). Instead of a second flush lower, buyers stepped in and ram‑med price back above that moving average.

Why that matters: the 50‑WMA is where 2020’s COVID crash and 2022’s post‑Luna unwind both found final bottoms. Staying above it keeps the 2024‑25 structure intact.

🚀 Next Hurdle: the $90 k Confluence

From today’s ~$84–85 k print, we’re barely 5 % away from the underside of an all‑important level: the 2024 “range breakdown” zone at ~$90 k. Break and close above it, and the bearish ghost‑of‑2022 fractal (lower‑high → cascade) dies on the spot.

If $90 k caps the move, prepare for chop. If we swipe through it, the roadmap opens toward six‑figure price discovery—and chart space is startlingly empty all the way to $110–120 k.

2. The Dog‑Whistle: A Fed That Finally Blinked

The Federal Reserve hasn’t actually fired up its balance‑sheet printer yet—but for the first time since 2021, officials acknowledged they might have to.

Why? U.S. Treasuries. Last week the 20‑year yield exploded higher, a sign the world was dumping the very bonds Washington needs to finance itself. Fed insiders whispered that “if dysfunction continues, we’ll step in.”

That single sentence matters because:

• Macro turning points always start with words, not actions. In December 2021, the Fed talked about rate hikes three months before it delivered.

• Liquidity tail‑winds (QE or QE‑lite) have historically pushed Bitcoin into overdrive within one to three months.

Consider it the first whiff of dovish smoke… and markets inhale fast.

3. Divergence in Plain Sight

• Bitcoin +3 % last week

• Nasdaq, S&P futures? Red, again.

• BTC/Nasdaq & BTC/SPX ratios? Piercing multi‑year down‑trends, tapping yearly highs.

Asian desks are buying Bitcoin as a safe haven versus the tariff seesaw; U.S. traders (still) treat BTC like levered tech. When both camps buy for different reasons, supply drains fast.

Add a fresh $1 billion USDT mint and the M2 money supply curling higher in China + the U.S. and you have a rocket‑fuel cocktail the market hasn’t sipped since late 2020.

4. Corporate Copy‑Trade: “Be Like MicroStrategy”

While most headlines fixate on ETFs, quietly:

• Japan’s Metaplanet converted its treasury into BTC.

• A Swedish micro‑cap is doing the same.

• Multiple U.S. SPAC‑shells are lining up to become “Solana‑Strategy” and “Ethereum‑Strategy” plays.

Every listed company that follows Saylor’s playbook removes more coins from float—just as new supply was halved again this month.

5. A Note on Ethereum (and Why Solana Keeps Stealing Thunder)

Vitalik published a radical idea: migrate the EVM to a RISC‑V target to slash ZK‑proof costs by up to 100×. Great, but multi‑year rewrites rarely grab retail imaginations.

Meanwhile, Solana flipped Ethereum in staked market‑cap and keeps luring builders with instant finality. Until ETH/BTC reverses its bleed, true “alt‑season” remains on ice.

Bottom line: Bitcoin must run first; then rotation will decide whether ETH gets a renaissance or SOL/L2s tighten their grip.

6. What We are Watching (and You Should Too)

7. Positioning & Thought Experiments

• Core stack: cold‑storage BTC untouched since 2023.

• Trading sleeve: deployed one‑third of reserve cash on the breakout; will add on any clean retest of $82–83 k.

• Alts: intentionally light until BTC dominance peaks; stalking SOL, a handful of DePIN plays, and deep‑value infra tokens (no meme chasing here).

Thought experiment: If Bitcoin equals gold’s market cap (~$2.7 T), price lands near $130 k. If it earns the same “tech premium” Nasdaq once commanded and doubles that, $260 k sits in view. Is that 2025 or 2026? Unknown—but the path begins with $90 k.

Final Take

We just heard the first liquidity dog‑whistle since the 2020‑21 mania, while corporate treasuries and Asian buyers quietly gorge on supply. Bitcoin cracked its down‑trend and is five percent from erasing every bearish pattern 2024 threw at it.

Don’t over‑trade the chop—but don’t sleep on a generational breakout if $90 k falls. In bull markets, the next 5 % move often triggers the next 50 %.

Stay nimble, manage risk, and above all: have a plan before the fireworks, not after.

📍Unhosted AI Weekly: OM‑ageddon & the Robo‑Degen Renaissance

AI coins rally while Mantra (OM) nukes $6 B—perfect snapshot of 2025’s whiplash market. Mind‑share sits unmoved at 33 %, yet capital floods back into agent tokens, memecoins, and anything stamped “DePAI.” NVIDIA vows $500 B in US silicon, pundits swear AGI arrives by 2028, and robots are literally boxing on‑chain. Translation: risk‑on rotation is alive, decentralization is your only seatbelt, and yes—Fartcoin somehow tops smart‑money inflows. Buckle up; the full dispatch breaks it all down.

🧠 Market Mood & Introduction

AI mind‑share on Crypto Twitter clings to 33 % (flat WoW) even after OM’s $6 B vapor‑candle. Instead of capitulation, the AI basket printed double‑digit gains—because nothing says “risk management” like buying the next shiny brain‑coin right after a mega‑rug.

Wall Street frets over tariffs, we shrug and buy more FLOKI‑GPT‑9000. Welcome to 2025.

Cookie Scan:

• 1,514 live agents after pruning 31 corpses (‑2 %).

• $6.04 B total cap, +$1.2 B WoW – wallets voting risk‑on again.

• Leaderboard shake‑up:

  • Fartcoin still king, but crown tilts as mind‑share dips.

  • ALCH pops on “actual utility” narrative.

  • AVA rips after fresh roadmap drop.
    

    

TL;DR — more agents, fatter cap, memes wobble while builders pump.

🏆 Movers & Shakers

• Fartcoin (SOL): $7 M smart inflows, angling for “Unicorn” status. Smells bullish.

• ALCH: Utility actually mattered for five minutes—tops the non‑meme charts.

• AVA: New roadmap, new hopium. CT ate it up.

• REI + ARC + PROMPT: MCP integrations = capital magnet.

🧭 Agent & Infra Alpha Drops

Robotics corner: Unitree hosts robot boxing, Fourier open‑sources a humanoid, MIT builds a pogo‑stick bug bot.

Robots: 3 – Humanity: 0.

NVIDIA just lobbed a $500 B grenade into U.S. fabs — four‑year blitz to crank out AI silicon like popcorn.

🌍 Macro AI Headlines (Web2 World)

• SSI bags $2 B @ $32 B valuation – safety vibes, danger price.

• OpenAI GPT‑4.1 family hits API – mini & nano models for your toaster.

• Google Cloud Next – new TPU, Gemini upgrades.

• Shopify forces every employee to “use AI or else.”

• Amazon rolls out longer AI‑generated videos; goodbye, human TikTokers.

• DeepSeek, Gemini Live Video, DolphinGemma – talking to dolphins now a roadmap bullet.

🔮 Round‑Up

1️⃣ AI tokens shrugged off a $6 B rug.
Risk‑on is back—at least until the next exploit nukes Twitter timelines.

2️⃣ AGI pencilled in for 2027, ASI for 2028.
Mark it right next to that ever‑pending ETH ETF approval.

3️⃣ Agents are the new SaaS—YC’s words, not just our gut. UX keeps levelling up; soon your fridge will be back‑testing pairs.

4️⃣ Open‑source & decentralization matter.
When ASI out‑smarts Congress, transparent weights and on‑chain governance might be the only leash we’ve got.

💡 Final Thoughts:

• Accumulating quality AI infra plays on dips, trimming meme pumps mercilessly.

• Staking on open‑source agent networks—we like our overlords transparent.

• Monitoring MCP adopters; early integrations → fat flows.

Ape with your seatbelt on. 🍀

RSI Heatmap Analysis 🧩

Overview of the Market Conditions

The RSI heatmap for the crypto market reveals diverse conditions, with assets distributed across overbought, strong, neutral, and oversold zones. Below is a breakdown of each category, with actionable trading strategies tailored to RSI behavior.

📉 Market Mood: AVG RSI 64.73 – Running Hot
We’re sitting in “cautiously euphoric” territory. Enough juice to spark FOMO, enough altitude for gravity to hurt. Strap in—or step aside.

🚨 Overbought Zone (70 + RSI) – Where Exit Liquidity Gets Minted

🔴CKB, KSM, YFI, COTI, XAI, SOLV, DOGS, FLOW, BANANA, TURBO, 1000RATS, SUSHI, GRT, ROSE, ZEN, AEVO

The air’s thin up here. If you’re holding, think trailing stops and celebratory screenshots. If you’re chasing, remember: those green candles double as warning flares.

🔥 Strong RSI (60 – 70 RSI) – Probably Someone’s Exit Pump

🔶SNX, BLUR, QUICK, PLUME, RSR, ACH, BIO, PARTI, MEW, BSW, ZRX, COW, DF, STORJ

Momentum traders still feasting, but risk‑reward is thinning. Great for nimble scalps; terrible for building a “long‑term conviction” thread on X.

🟠 Neutral RSI (40 – 60 RSI) – Purgatory with Volume

🔹XTZ, XMR, GMX, VTHO, AGLD, HIGH, GLM, PERP, SXP, ZEC, CHILLGUY, LISTA, SWARMS, NKN, STO

Sideways city. Ideal for quiet accumulation—or slow, morale‑draining bleed. Watch the news ticker; catalysts flip these from crab walk to sprint in a heartbeat.

🫠 Weak / Oversold (< 40 RSI) – Bargain Bin or Bio‑Waste?

🧊FUN

The lone ranger in RSI’s basement. Could stage a dead‑cat bounce; could stay down here collecting dust. Size positions like you hate yourself only a little.

🔮 Final Takeaways

• Overbought? Trim, trail, or thank the liquidity gods and bail.

• Strong? Ride the wave—but keep a parachute handy.

• Neutral? Boring till it isn’t; perfect sniper zone for patient bids.

• Oversold? Speculative snack, not a full‑course meal. Test bites only.

💡 RSI is a speedometer, not prophecy. Pair it with volume, structure, and narrative flow. Ape hard, exit harder.

🚀 Recent Fundraising Highlights

This week brought significant fundraising updates across the blockchain and AI space. Here are the key projects and their achievements:

ZND

EdgeX Labs

LayerZero

Euler

World Liberty Financial 

🔗 Final Thoughts

ZND / EdgeX Labs / LayerZero / Euler / World Liberty Financial — another round of shiny pitch decks rolling into crypto’s Coliseum, armed with AI, DePIN, cross‑chain hopium, and enough VC ammo to keep the lights on through Christmas.

There’s an “everything‑bagel” DeFi super‑app, a decentralized edge‑compute dream, a $55 M bridge‑to‑everywhere, a redemption‑arc money market, and a yield aggregator promising liberty (plus juicy emissions). All ambitious—on paper.

Here’s the alpha:

1. Most won’t survive past v1.

2. A couple might 10‑50× if narrative tailwinds hit.

3. The rest? They pivot, rebrand, or quietly sunset while the telegram mods blame “market conditions.”

💰 $20 M seed ≠ product‑market fit
🌉 Cross‑chain hype ≠ exploit‑proof infra
🧠 AI/DePIN tags ≠ real demand

As always, separate narrative from outcome. Farm the incentives, size the bets to your pain tolerance, and remember: VC logos look great on slides—less so on your unrealized PnL.
Degen responsibly.

🎁 Latest Airdrops

Here’s your weekly dose of fresh airdrop opportunities. Participate and earn tokens or rewards by completing simple tasks. Don't miss out!

GPU.NET

Orochi Network

Exponent

DePINed

ByteNova (ClustroAI)

💡 Final Thoughts:

• GPU.NET → Confirmed social‑shill campaign. Earn imaginary “GPU credits” while nuking your X timeline with referral spam. Might power‑up if AI chips stay scarce—might just leave you holding a bag of exposure.

• Orochi Network → Testnet prover grind. Could score you primo ZK alpha… or just fry your laptop fan for a Discord role. Low cost, medium tech flex, unknown upside.

• Exponent → Liquidity sink wearing a 🔥 badge. Sweet yields now, inevitable impermanent‑loss hangover later. Farm hard, exit harder.

• DePINed → Mystery airdrop with no numbers. Either the next Helium‑sized run‑up or a PowerPoint pitch deck in disguise. Proceed with one eyebrow permanently raised.

• ByteNova (ClustroAI) → Paid‑placement “Featured” slot. Telegram hop, follow, retweet—standard chore list. If AI tokens keep mooning, even crumbs taste like filet mignon. If hype dies, congrats on your shiny participation badge.
  

  👀 TL;DR: GPU & Orochi are your no‑brainer grinds, Exponent is the degen LP play, DePINed is Schrödinger’s airdrop, and ByteNova is a sponsored flyer. Clip coupons, dump bags, and remember: if it’s glowing 🔥, it might be gold—or radioactive.