👀 Last week in Crypto

➖ BTC aged 1 to 3 months are being massively transferred to new addresses

Newbies who bought at the peak are getting rid of their coins at a loss

—-

DeFi project World Liberty Financial is experiencing a floating loss of $124 million on 9 purchased altcoins

🔍 The current correction size of BTC from the last ATH ($109,287) is 30%

❓ How many corrections of this size (30%) have there been in the market since 2016?

- 10 , with an average size of 49.8%

❓ How long on average did it take to restore to the previous ATN? - 10 months

—-

📈 There is a significant divergence between the BTC price and network hashrate charts

Thus, miners remain confident despite the exchange rate risks associated with the correction.

This state of affairs can be considered a leading indicator for the price: significant resources are being invested in the production of coins, which makes BTC undervalued

Bitcoin Detailed Analysis

1. Short-Term Correction:

   • Bitcoin is in a corrective phase. We might see short-term rallies—perhaps a bounce up toward $85K—but they’re likely to stall if key support levels (around the lower $70Ks) aren’t respected. History tells us that a weak Q1 (as seen in 2017) can precede a strong Q2, but only if the macro conditions eventually align.
     

   • Expect several attempts at support near the low-$80,000 region (spot) with the market showing a tendency to test those lows again.
     

2. Momentum & Technical Indicators:

• Daily Stochastic Momentum is trending downward, indicating short-term bearish pressure, a confirmed daily breakout above 87k could indicate a higher move.

• Multi-day time frames (2-day, 3-day, 5-day, weekly, and beyond) also reflect downside momentum, suggesting caution for immediate upside hopes.
  

1. Higher-Term Support & Macro Picture:

   • The 55-exponential moving average on certain higher-time-frame charts (e.g., weekly) has historically acted as a solid baseline for bounces.

   • Still, if momentum remains negative across multiple closing periods, deeper tests into lower support ranges (e.g., mid-$70,000 region) are possible.

Altcoin Highlights

1. General Weakness vs. Bitcoin:

   • Most altcoins are showing significant downtrends, below key moving averages like the 200 Simple and 377, however many alts are in the zone of demand and if BTC turns around we could see a juicy rebound from this levels.

   • Repeated mention of “lower highs, lower highs, lower highs” underscores that rallies have consistently failed to break key resistance.
     

2. Exceptions & Relative Strength:

   • XRP: Stood out as one of the stronger major-cap assets, staying above certain critical supports and major moving averages. Though still facing broader market headwinds, it appears more resilient relative to other large-cap coins.

   • ADA (Cardano): Also noted for holding key higher-term supports better than many other altcoins. Yet, upside hinges on Bitcoin’s overall direction.

3. Meme Coins & Speculative Plays:

   • Many meme coins, or lower-cap tokens, have shown one-off parabolic moves but then retraced heavily.

   • Cautioned against chasing “1000x narratives” unless accompanied by disciplined risk management. (make sure your stop loss is in place)

Market Sentiment & Macro Considerations

Volatility on Display

Investors aren’t buying into the chaos. Last week, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) slipped into correction territory—plunging over 10% from its record high. Although Friday offered a glimmer of hope for stocks, the S&P 500 (SPX) still closed its worst week since September, down 3.1%. When you zoom out, the S&P 500 is barely holding above the flatline it’s maintained since the election, wiping out over $3 trillion in market value from its late-February peak.

The Tariff Tango: Where Do We Stand?

So, where has this dizzying labyrinth of tariffs landed? And is this the final word? Not quite.

• Canada and Mexico:
  Trump declared there’s “no room left” for these allies to bargain—a 25% levy was set to take effect immediately. But within a day, a month-long reprieve for carmakers was introduced, and shortly after, the 25% tariff on almost all goods from these neighbors was suspended.

• Looking Ahead:
  Trump has hinted that a “big” wave of tariffs is on the horizon for several countries, including the European Union, while only China’s 20% tariff remains in place for now.

Impact on the Dollar & Investor Sentiment

This roller-coaster of tariff decisions has sent the dollar (DXY) into a freefall, fueling chatter about a looming “Trumpcession.” In essence, some traders and investors now expect these policies to push the American economy toward recession.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve—led by Jay Powell—has managed to engineer a soft landing by cutting interest rates just enough to tame inflation without triggering a full-blown downturn. However, a growing worry is that the tariff-induced uncertainty might eventually force the Fed to pause or even pull back on its rate-cutting campaign, which could further dent consumer confidence and corporate earnings.

Strategy & Risk Management

1. Short-Term Trading:

   • Traders should be wary of sudden wicks that might invalidate or complicate tight stop-loss placements.

   • Use partial positions or employ more conservative entries, especially around major moving averages.

2. Long-Term Outlook:

   • For those holding a multi-year horizon, dips in Bitcoin’s price remain potential buying opportunities.

   • However, no single price indicator or data point (e.g. single moving average) guarantees a reversal.

3. Hedging & Allocation:

   • Recommendation to keep some portion of capital in cash, especially if the portfolio is already heavily exposed.

   • The practice of partial profit-taking or partial hedging was viewed as a way to reduce stress during volatile moves.

📍Unhosted AI Weekly: Mindshare, Markets, and Money Moves

📊 AI Mindshare: Still Leading, But Slipping?

AI mindshare is sitting at 29% this week, down 1%, but still almost double the next segment, DeFi. AI still owns the narrative, but the hype cycle may be cooling—at least for now.

🚀 China’s AI Play: Manus AI vs. OpenAI?

A new AI power move just dropped. @ManusAI_HQ, developed by Monica.im, launched on March 6, 2025, flexing autonomous task execution and taking shots at OpenAI.

🔥 The Benchmark Battle:

• Manus outperformed OpenAI’s Deep Research on the GAIA benchmark (aka the AI Olympics for agents).

• The secret? Multi-agent coordination—sub-agents handle memory, planning, execution.

🤯 Real-World AI Applications? A viral demo showed Manus managing 50 social media accounts simultaneously—a hint at AI’s future in trading, gaming, and chatbot domination.

📉 But Meanwhile… The Markets Bleed International trade wars and an underwhelming crypto summit dragged down both stocks and crypto. AI tokens weren’t spared—proving even robots can’t dodge macro FUD.

💰 Weekly AI Agent Analysis: Where’s the Smart Money Going?

🔹 $3.5M net inflows into $TAO (Bittensor)

• Institutional players sniffing around?

• Speculation rising as TAO’s first halving (Nov 2025) approaches.

• More subnets = more locked TAO = Scarcity narrative heating up.

📊 AI Agents Report (Cookie Terminal)

• 1,469 AI Agents tracked, totaling $4.05B market cap.

• 36 new agents (+3%) but overall market cap down $1.15B (22%)—thanks, macro chaos.

• $0.7B (12%) market cap decrease over the past week, mirroring broader crypto downturn.
  

  

🚀 Biggest Movers:

• $GROK-adjacent projects pumping thanks to @ElonMusk’s tweets.

• @bankrbot & @clankeronbase leading the AI coin rally.

• $COOKIE holding strong after Coinbase listing, proving memes still print money.
  

  

📌 Weekly Wrap-Up

• AI mindshare still dominates (29%), but macro FUD is hurting the sector.

• China’s Manus AI just put OpenAI on notice—expect more AI warfare ahead.

• $TAO's quiet accumulation suggests smart money positioning.

AI isn’t slowing down—it’s just reloading. More breakthroughs and volatility ahead. Stay sharp, anon. 🚀

💡 Final Thoughts: AI in Crypto is Just Getting Started

Let’s be real—AI and crypto are still trying to figure out their perfect match. The hype may have cooled, but the innovation is relentless. While AI tokens are taking a hit, the tech is only getting stronger.

📉 Market sentiment is weak, but ETH Denver proved AI x crypto isn’t fading—it’s just restructuring.

🚀 What’s Next?

• Big catalysts needed. AI crypto projects need more than just speculation—actual adoption is key.

• Infrastructure > hype. Real AI-powered infra, like OpenServ and ALCH, is proving to be more than just another trend.

• DeFAI is creeping up. DeFi is struggling for relevance, and AI-powered automation might be its saving grace.

• AI gaming is no longer theory. Forget play-to-earn junk—real AI-driven gaming is becoming a thing.

Right now, it’s still a wild mess, but make no mistake—AI in crypto isn’t going anywhere. Whether you’re in for the long haul, trading the swings, or just here for the chaos, this sector is only heating up. 🔥

Subscribe to Premium Newsletter to read the rest.