Unhosted Weekly: Crypto Market Overview #21

Pump, Dump, Repeat: Making Sense of the Nonsense...

Crypto never sleeps, and neither do bad actors. ..

👀 Last week in Crypto

It finally happened. ByBit got drained for 400,000 ETH (~$1.5B), making this the biggest crypto hack in history. The culprit? Lazarus Group, North Korea’s favorite cybercrime syndicate. Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes is out here asking Vitalik for a blockchain rollback, users are panic-withdrawing billions, and Binance is trying to plug the hole.

💀 The ByBit Heist: North Korea’s Crypto Payday

  • Lazarus Group successfully stole 400,000 ETH from ByBit, cementing North Korea as the 14th largest Ethereum holder—now richer in ETH than even Vitalik and the Ethereum Foundation.

  • Since the hack, users have withdrawn ~$5B, leading to serious liquidity concerns.

  • Binance & other exchanges rushed to send 90,000 ETH back to ByBit to prevent a complete collapse.

🚨 Stolen ETH: Laundering, Bounties & Blocklists

  • Hackers have already begun laundering funds through mixers, meaning ETH sell pressure could increase over time.

  • Arkham announced a bounty program for anyone who can trace the stolen funds or provide intel on the hackers.

  • Chainflip is developing an API service to block stolen ETH from being accepted via brokers—one of the first real attempts at freezing illicit crypto transactions.

🔮 What’s Next?

  • More regulatory scrutiny. A $1.5B hack is too big to ignore.

  • Increased ETH sell pressure. Lazarus offloading funds through mixers could hit the market in waves.

  • ByBit’s future is shaky. If withdrawals continue at this pace, things could spiral fast.

  • So far, the Bybit hacker has laundered 270K $ETH($605M, 54% of the stolen funds) and still holds 229,395 $ETH($514M)

Bottom Line? North Korea is now an Ethereum whale, ByBit is in damage control mode, and crypto security is looking more fragile than ever. Trade accordingly. 💡

Bitcoin’s Bounce, Market Fear.

🚨 Bitcoin just nuked from $94K to $78K—and no, this isn’t just another correction. But before you panic sell into oblivion, there’s a setup for a short-term bounce brewing. Let’s break down the data, the levels to watch, and why the market is literally at its most fearful point in nearly two years.

📉 Bitcoin Breakdown: From $94K to $78K in a Week

🔹 This isn’t just a correction. When Bitcoin dropped below $94K, the downside accelerated fast, slicing through support levels like a knife through exit liquidity.

🔹 The low hit $78K today, and while macro time frames still look weak, Bitcoin is primed for a short-term bounce.

🔹 Why? The 200-Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart was just tested—a classic bounce zone.

💡 TL;DR: The bigger trend isn’t looking great, but short-term buyers could get some relief before Bitcoin decides its next move.

😱 Extreme Fear in the Market: A Contrarian Buy Signal?

🔹 Crypto Fear & Greed Index: Sitting at 10 (Extreme Fear).

  • This is the lowest level since June 2022—aka FTX collapse territory.

  • Even more extreme than September 2024, when Bitcoin was in the low $50Ks.

🔹 Historically, when sentiment is this bad, Bitcoin is close to a local bottom. But remember: fear can stay extreme longer than your portfolio can stay solvent.

📆 March Outlook: Bounce First, Pain Later?

🔹 March historically starts strong, then fades.

  • If Bitcoin is going to be bearish, expect a local high in the first week of March (somewhere between $90K and $92K).

  • After that? A potential move lower, aligning with broader bearish macro signals.

🔹 Higher time frames still look weak:

  • Daily momentum stays down below $91K.

  • 2-day time frame bearish below $88.5K.

  • 3-day, 5-day, and weekly time frames all need $96K+ to turn bullish again.

  • Even the 10-day and 2-week charts are bearish under $98K and $100K.

💡 Translation: A bounce is likely, but don’t get too comfortable.

📊 The Big Picture: Are We in a Mini Bear Market?

🔹 Bitcoin looks eerily similar to the 2021 cycle:

  • Hit a major high, then retraced for months before recovering.

  • Does that mean a new all-time high in late 2025? Possibly.

  • But for now? We could be in a multi-month correction.

🔹 Hash Ribbons Buy Signal? Nowhere in sight.

  • Until that flashes, long-term bullish positions carry extra risk.

  • Bitcoin can drop much lower before printing a reversal signal.

💡 The best trades come when the market screams “it’s over.” We’re not quite there yet, but we’re close.

🔮 What to Watch Next

🚀 Short-Term: Expect Bitcoin to bounce into the first week of March—$88.5K to $92K is the zone to watch.

⚠️ Mid-Term: A rejection in that range could mean another leg lower. If $91K-$92K holds as resistance, watch out below.

📉 Macro: A multi-month consolidation or correction is possible before Bitcoin gears up for another push. Be patient.

💡 Bottom Line? Enjoy the bounce, but don’t mistake it for the start of another bull run—at least not yet.

Stay smart, stay hedged, and don’t let the moon phase trade your bags for you. 🚀

📍Unhosted AI Weekly: AI Agents Keep Building, and Bittensor Evolves

AI-driven projects are proving more resilient than most, and we’re here to break down the biggest movers, the most disruptive tech, and whether any of this actually matters.

📉 The Big Picture: AI Mindshare & Market Wreckage

🔹 AI mindshare down to 33% this week—off 3%, but still holding strong.

🔹 AI projects still outperforming the bloodbath:

  • Story Protocol – IP rights on-chain, because AI-generated content is coming.

  • Kaito AI – Analyzes social sentiment, helping you front-run CT influencers.

  • AskBillyBets – Sports betting AI running on Bittensor Subnet 41 with a high hit rate.

💡 AI isn’t going anywhere. Even with market pain, these projects are gaining traction.

🧠 AI Agent Capital Flow: Where’s the Smart Money Going?

🔹 Virtuals.io announced Autonomous Businesses, shaking up the AI x crypto landscape.

🔹 AI Agents up 1% this week with a 7% increase in market cap—now sitting at $5.9B total.

🔹 Big moves in the past week:

  • ProxyStudio (CLANKER) – Listed on Coinbase (Spot).

  • KEKE Terminal – Part of Christie’s first Autonomous Art Sale.

  • Freysa AI – Dropped “Digital Twin”, because real-world avatars are apparently the future.

  • BankrBot – Sending on-chain transactions from X like an AI-powered market maker.

  • HeyAnonAI – Viral marketing plays to push its DeFAI solution.

💡 Takeaway? AI Agents aren’t slowing down, even as the rest of the market bleeds out.

💡 Final Thoughts: Where’s This All Going?

  • ByBit hack? More market pain incoming. Expect ETH to stay choppy as North Korea exits positions.

  • Bittensor’s Dynamic TAO? Could be a major unlock for AI-powered crypto applications.

  • AI Agents? Growing, iterating, and stealing more market share every week.

  • Web3 Gaming? Claude 3.7 and AI integrations could actually make it not terrible.

  • Betting AI? Billy Bets is crushing sports bets—don’t be surprised if more AI gambling plays pop up.

AI’s not slowing down. Crypto might be bleeding, but agents, infrastructure, and betting models are scaling up. Stay ahead, or stay rekt. 🚀

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