Unhosted Weekly: Crypto Market Overview #19

Crypto industry is never boring…

While Bitcoin bulls were busy holding their breath, the market threw a few curveballs: Argentinan President launched a meme token, Ethereum gas fees hit a 4-year low (yes, transactions under $1 are a thing again), Michael Saylor’s bonds outperformed Bitcoin itself (how’s that for irony?), and SafeMoon’s CTO finally admitted to his $200M fraud. Meanwhile, the altseason debate is back—except this time, BTC dominance doesn’t even matter.

Oh, and if you thought gold was just for boomers, think again—Tether Gold investors are laughing all the way to the vault.

Let’s break it all down. 🚀

👀 Last week in Crypto

⛽️ Ethereum transaction costs fall to 4-year low ($0.94)

In addition, the median gas price has returned to its historical low, last seen in 2020 (1.39 Gwei)

🧮 VanEck has calculated that a strategic reserve of 1 million bitcoins collected by 2029 could help offset the US government's $21 trillion debt by 2049.

🔎 The Altseason has already begun

This is what the head of CryptoQuant believes, based on a comparison of altcoin trading volumes with BTC volumes

Currently this coefficient is 2.7x

This is an unusual alt season. Firstly, there is no direct rotation of BTC into alts

Secondly, BTC dominance is no longer an indicator of altseason. It is now trading volume

💵 Strategy 's convertible bonds have returned 71% since issuance

Thus, Saylor's papers have outperformed even Bitcoin itself in terms of profitability.

📊 Digital gold Tether Gold ( XAUT token) brought investors a 45% return in a year

Backed by physical gold stored in a Swiss vault, XAUT could compete with physical bullion investments amid scandalous rumours of potential problems at Fort Knox and UK vaults

📊 Solana has 10x more daily active users than Ethereum and Bitcoin

The turning point occurred in January 2024 and remains to this day.

However, the diagram does not take into account the state of affairs on the second layers L2

🗿 SafeMoon CTO Thomas Smith Pleads Guilty in $200M Crypto Fraud Case

He had previously pleaded not guilty.

Its articles provide for a maximum penalty of 20 to 25 years in prison.

₿itcoin’s Bounce or Breakdown? The Puzzle Pieces Are Falling Into Place 🧩

After a boring couple of weeks, Bitcoin finally hit the minimum corrective target with that wick to the downside on the last two-day closure. Now, the market picture is shifting, and for the hopium-addicted bulls, there’s still a chance for a bounce.

📊 Higher Time Frames Aligning for a Potential Move

Bitcoin’s higher time frame momentums are showing potential strength, but conditions need to be met:

• Daily Momentum stays up if Bitcoin holds above $96,620 (currently ~$1,000 above that, but the day isn’t over).

• 2-Day Time Frame will cross up if BTC closes above $95,500 – the fact that this pivot is lowering is usually a good sign.

• 3-Day Closure is tonight. If Bitcoin closes above $96,900, momentum flips bullish again.

What’s the takeaway? 🧐 A bounce looks likely, but a bounce ≠ a breakout into a full-blown uptrend.

🔍 5-Day & CME: The Hidden Macro Clues

Bitcoin’s 5-day closure tomorrow is key. If BTC reclaims $97,250 on CME charts, it could trigger a more significant move.

Why?

• CME Bitcoin has a premium over spot, so $97,250 on CME ≠ spot BTC price – but still, a reclaim signals market strength.

• If Bitcoin stays above momentum pivots on the daily, 2-day, and 3-day, while reclaiming the median on the HPDR, it’s a green light for a stronger bounce.

📈 Where Could Bitcoin Bounce To?

🚀 If Bitcoin follows through, the 618 Fibonacci retrace sits around $102K. The scenario?

1. BTC rallies to $102K

2. Pulls back to set a higher low

3. Attempts a real breakout

But the big breakout isn’t confirmed unless BTC clears $105K+.

💡 Hash Ribbons Buy Signal Incoming?

📊 The Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Indicator is projecting a buy signal in 2 days. However, this fluctuates based on BTC price.

What does this mean?

• If Bitcoin rallies now, the buy signal may come sooner.

• If BTC stagnates or drops, the signal gets delayed.

💡 The bull case isn’t fully confirmed until this signal triggers.

💰 Liquidity Charts Still Flashing Bullish Signals

Bitcoin’s global liquidity index remains above the 40SMA – a historically bullish macro signal.

Past Performance:
📊 72% of historical crossovers resulted in profitable moves.
🚀 Previous macro uptrends started when liquidity remained above the 40SMA.

What does this mean?

• As long as global liquidity stays high, the macro environment favors Bitcoin strength.

• Bitcoin can easily bounce to $100K-$102K, but $105K+ is where a true breakout happens.

🧐 The Bigger Picture: Bulls Need Clarity Before the Weekend

• Short-term momentum favors a bounce – but the buy signal on Hash Ribbons needs to confirm.

• Liquidity remains strong, but Bitcoin must hold key levels on daily/2-day/3-day closes.

• If BTC crosses $105K, it’s game on for a new uptrend.

⏳ The next 48 hours are critical.

👀 Final Thoughts: Stay Alert

• If Bitcoin holds key levels into the weekend, expect more clarity on the next move.

• If the buy signal on Hash Ribbons confirms, bulls have real momentum.

• If BTC dips back under key pivots, the bounce could fail, trapping late buyers.

🔍 Either way, the next few days will define whether Bitcoin is gearing up for a breakout or just another bull trap.

Stay tuned – next update coming soon. 🚀

📉 LIBRA Scandal Hits Markets – AI & Crypto Adapt

Argentina’s economy gets a rug pull as the LIBRA scandal knocks it down 5.7% in a day. Meanwhile, crypto & agentic markets take a $110M liquidity punch to the gut. But, in true degen fashion, builders don’t stop.

🧠 AI Agents Weekly Analysis: Flows, Mindshare & Market Trends

📈 AI Sentiment: Holding Up Despite Market Chaos

• AI sentiment climbs to 36% this week (+4% from last week).

• Prices? Still bleeding. The LIBRA debacle isn’t helping, but AI narratives refuse to die.

🌊 KAITO AI: The InfoFi Era Begins?

• $KAITO claim goes live tomorrow (Feb 20, 12PM UTC)

• Trading starts at 1PM UTC

• Tokenomics will drop before launch

🚀 Could InfoFi (Information Finance) be the next big crypto sector as data becomes more valuable for AI models? Don’t sleep on this trend.

🎮 AI & Gaming: Musk Wants In

• Elon Musk & xAI are hiring for AI gaming development.

• Could this be the start of a full-blown AI-powered gaming revolution?

Meanwhile, Grok 3 competes against OpenAI’s O3, Gemini-2, Deepseek, and Claude. The AI arms race is accelerating.

💰 Bittensor Subnets: Capital Inflows & Mini Alt Season?

• Subnet tokens paired with $TAO are pumping

• Could $TAO lead the next AI-driven rally? Some traders think so.

🔍 Example: @modenetwork uses AI-powered predictive price analysis, feeding data back to autonomous trading agents. DeFi x AI is heating up.

🏀 AI Breaks Into Sports Betting

• TracyAI integrates into US sports markets – mainstream adoption is creeping in.

• Billy Bets turns $50 into $650 using autonomous AI betting strategies.

• Dave Portnoy flexes meme coin gains – could sports betting be an easy crypto on-ramp for degens?

📊 AI Agent Capital Flows & Market Movements

💸 Capital Deployments This Week (via @nansen_ai & @virtuals_io)

• Biggest net inflows: Virtuals ecosystem

• Biggest losers: Solana-based tokens, wrecked by LIBRA panic

📊 AI Agents Market Overview (via @Cookiedotfun)

• 1,463 AI agents tracked, valued at $5.5B

• Market cap down $2.14B (-28%) due to broader meme dump

• New AI agent listings: +13 (+1%)

🔼 Biggest Mindshare Gainer: @myshell_ai (TGE incoming)
⚡ BNB AI Agents gain traction after CZ’s recent endorsement.

🚀 AI Agent Innovations & Market Disruptors

🔍 Anti-Rug AI Agents Launching

• SarumAI Agent to flag potential rug pulls – because we’re tired of learning the hard way.

🎭 AI x NFT Art Goes Mainstream

• @keke_terminal & @fellowshiptrust pushing AI art NFTs.

🤖 AI x Gaming & Multimodal Learning: AGI Acceleration?

• Ronin Network opens up Web3 gaming AI.

• NRN Agents pushing multimodal reinforcement learning for AGI.

🧐 Final Take: Where Is This All Headed?

🔹 Markets are shaky, but AI innovation is relentless.
🔹 Gaming & AI are merging – this could trigger a Web3 gaming renaissance.
🔹 AI-driven sports betting is becoming a real thing.
🔹 Watch out for AI-powered trading tools – automated agents are getting smarter.

🔮 Long-term: AI is not just a trend—it’s a paradigm shift. If you’re not paying attention, you’ll be left behind.

💡 Want daily updates? Catch our AI Agent market breakdowns on X, Spotify, & Amazon Music.

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