Unhosted Weekly: Crypto Market Overview #18

👀 Last week in Crypto

🐋 CryptoQuant Sees 5-Year High in Bitcoin Whale Inflows to Exchanges, Signaling Possible Bullrun

📈 Bitcoin drawdown chart showing how 15% corrections are being bought up on the spot market - Spoiler : like hot cakes

The 15% retracement area is now $90,000

🏃‍♂️ The current situation on the market cannot be called a panic sale. This is what Glassnode analysts think anyways. There has only been one real panic sale in the current cycle - in September 2023

The rest of the time, holders always had more profit than loss.

🔍 The current cycle is close to the historical peak of the channel built on the 365-day MVRV (Market Value to Realised Value, or the ratio of the market and realized capitalization of Bitcoin)

Realized capitalization is calculated from the price of all BTC at the time of their last movement (not just from the current price, as is done for market cap)

The peaks here were relevant in 2014, 2018 and 2021 (СryptoQuant Data)

🗂 SEC Confirms Receipt of Grayscale's Form 19b-4 Filing to convert your XRP trust into a spot XRP ETF

Similar applications also come from Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary Funds, Wisdom Tree

The SEC has a 240-day window for approval.

🇸🇻 El Salvador has added exactly 50 BTC to its official Bitcoin balance in the last 30 days

As we can see, their schedule of daily purchase of one bitcoin is ahead of schedule.

Another 1 BTC was purchased yesterday, and the total value of Salvador's BTC portfolio is approaching $600 million.

📈 Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase's revenue from "Subscriptions and services" in 2024 grew to $2.31 billion

📩 Bitcoin Weekly Digest 📩

Bitcoin's Boring Dance, Hidden Targets, and Market Tricks 🎯

Let’s break down today’s market madness with a sprinkle of cynicism and a whole lot of real talk.

🚨 Bitcoin's Big Test: $92,700 🚨

⚙️ Key Setup Recap:

• The Cross: Red (5 EMA) dropping below Yellow (21 EMA). Historically, this means a correction to the Green (55 EMA)—71.43% of the time, to be exact.

• The Target: $92,700 is your minimum corrective zone 📉.

📊 Actionable Insights:

1. Short the bounces (with caution):

   • Any short-term pop likely won’t break $98,500. Watch for rejections around that level to open short positions.

2. Monitor $93K closely:

   • A daily close below $93,000 starts to invalidate bullish structures. If you’re a bull, set alerts and prepare to reevaluate.

3. Play the range:

   • Bitcoin is likely bouncing between $92,700 and $98,500 for now. Smart traders are range trading instead of praying for moonshots.

⏳ Short-Term Boredom, Long-Term Potential

🎯 What’s Happening Right Now?

Bitcoin’s been doing nothing for the last 10 days. If you’re looking for excitement, go watch paint dry—it’s faster. But there’s a silver lining:

• Hidden Bullish Divergence is brewing on the 2-day RSI.

• As long as Bitcoin doesn’t close below $93K, there’s a chance for a sneaky bounce back to $102,000–$104,000 in the medium term.

📈 Bullish Setup:

If Bitcoin holds higher lows and confirms a reversal above $98,500, watch for these targets:

• $103,000: Initial resistance.

• $104,500–$105,000: Secondary target zone.

📉 Bearish Scenario:

If Bitcoin fails to defend $93,000, brace yourself for a deeper dip:

• $92,000: Immediate support.

• $89,000–$90,000: Worst-case scenario for this move.

💡 Pro Tip:

Set dynamic alerts on your trading platform to track these levels automatically. Being glued to the chart won’t make the price move faster.

🔑 Global Liquidity: The Quiet Market Mover

What’s Happening?

The 5-day Global Liquidity Index (GLI) just triggered a long entry signal. Historically, this signal has been a big deal for Bitcoin:

• 75% win rate since 2014.

• Historically associated with massive upside moves (average 134% returns on winning trades).

• However, when it fails, Bitcoin averages a 12.75% drop, so tread carefully.

How It Works:

• The GLI measures major money supplies from the US, Europe, China, and Japan.

• When the yellow liquidity line crosses above its blue moving average, it suggests an inflow of liquidity that typically fuels asset price increases.

• More liquidity = easier money = bullish markets.

🛠️ Technicals in Focus

1. The Moving Averages:

   • 55 EMA: The key level at $92,700. Historically hit 71% of the time when the 5/21 cross occurs.

   • 786 Fibonacci Retracement: Also lurking near $92,700. Watch for wicks to this level.

2. Momentum Indicators:

   • 2-Day Stochastic RSI: Bearish until Bitcoin breaks back above $12,000 (yeah, it’s a stretch).

   • Monthly Stochastic RSI: Still bullish above $92,700—don’t get too bearish too soon.

3. Volume Profile:

   • Volume is drying up, which suggests Bitcoin could be coiling for a larger move. Tighten stops if you’re in a position.

🤔 What About the Macro?

Oh, and there’s this little wildcard: tariffs.

• Trump’s new tariff talk might cause a minor shakeup, but the market is getting less emotional about these headlines. A shrug-off could be bullish; a breakdown, not so much.

Actionable Insight:

If Bitcoin doesn’t react strongly to tariff news, it could signal the market’s resilience—watch for bullish follow-through.

🔥 February Fun Fact: Bullish History

Historically, February is a strong month for Bitcoin—especially in odd-numbered years. If history rhymes, a bullish breakout might still be in the cards before the month closes.

🛑 Quick Trading PSA

Leverage trading isn’t for the faint of heart. If you’re new, maybe sit this one out. If you’re experienced, keep your stop losses tight, especially in this boring-as-hell market.

Final Words on BTC

Bitcoin’s boring right now, but the opportunity is in the quiet. Whether you’re playing the range or waiting for a breakout, remember:

• Patience wins over FOMO.

• The market owes you nothing, but discipline pays dividends.

And for those lurking in the comments section whining about missed predictions: we can’t see the future, but we do make educated guesses. If that’s not enough, maybe stick to TikTok.

Until tomorrow—stay sharp, don’t FOMO, and for Satoshi’s sake, stop checking the chart every five minutes.

📩 Agentic Insights Weekly Digest 📩

Subject: 🔥 AI Agents, Infrastructure Plays, and On-Chain Breakouts

Welcome to this week’s Agentic Insights, where we highlight the latest developments in the AI x Crypto space. If you’re following the convergence of AI and blockchain, this roundup has you covered!

🚀 AI Gains Momentum: Key Highlights

AI coins are making a comeback as infrastructure players drive liquidity and adoption. Here’s a breakdown of the latest developments:

🧵 Key Metrics and Updates

Net Inflows Point to Increased Capital Deployment

1. @Virtuals Protocol: Received $2M+ in the last 24 hours, highlighting:

   • Integration with @Ronin

   • Launch of a sports betting agent, @HeyTracyAI

   • New NFT terminal by @fxhash

2. @aixbt: Quarter-million inflow but down 2%.

3. @Story Protocol: Mainnet goes live with $2.5B FDV.

Arc Forge Token Launch Platform

• @arc: Up 18% on the announcement of "Forge," offering robust liquidity for new tokens. ➡️ Learn more about Arc Forge here.

Vader’s “Early Agent Offering” (EAO)

• Stake $VADER to access early-stage launches, including:

  • $AICC (11,493x ROI)

  • $EVAL (18x ROI)

• Features a machine-learning-based hodler score to reward long-term holders. ➡️ Read the Vader announcement here.

Ronin Goes Permissionless

• Integration of agents for immersive gameplay powered by the G.A.M.E framework via @ReadyGamer_AI. ➡️ Check out Ronin’s integration here.

Agent Hackathon at ETH Denver

• Hosted by @StoryProtocol, featuring:

  • $60K in prizes.

  • Partners: Virtuals, Arc, Ai16z. ➡️ Join the hackathon updates here.

AI Meets Physical

• Decentralized Physical AI (DePAI) by Messari explores robots operated on decentralized infrastructure. ➡️ Dive into DePAI here.

Hyperfy: 3D AI Agents

• Bringing agents to life with contextual 3D environments. ➡️ Explore Hyperfy’s updates here.

AI Fact-Checking Wiki Pages

• Mira Network: Open-sourced WikiSentry for fact-checking Wikipedia entries. ➡️ Try WikiSentry here.

📈 Market Trends

• Infrastructure Boom: Projects like Virtuals Protocol and Arc are leading the way.

• AI x Gaming: Ronin and ReadyGamer are redefining interactive entertainment.

• On-Chain IP: Story Protocol’s mainnet launch is a landmark for the $61T IP industry.

👀 What to Watch Next

• Launches: Keep an eye on @VaderResearch and @StoryProtocol.

• Emerging Markets: Decentralized Physical AI and 3D agent environments are gaining traction.

• Key Metrics: Monitor net inflows into AI coins and partnerships driving adoption.

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