Unhosted Weekly: Crypto Market Overview #17

👀 Last week in Crypto

Bitcoin briefly corrected to $92K, triggering a wave of speculation—was this the beginning of a deeper pullback? Apparently not. Within hours, BTC rebounded back to $100K, showcasing strong demand and aggressive buy pressure at lower levels. This kind of rapid recovery suggests that market participants are still hungry for Bitcoin, reinforcing the idea that the cycle high isn’t in yet.

Here is why we are seeing such a sharp rebound:

🇺🇸 The 'Strategic Bitcoin Reserve' Bill Officially Passes the Utah House of Representatives

The bill now moves to the Senate for consideration.

🇺🇸 Kentucky has also joined the race for a strategic bitcoin reserve.

HB376 would allow the state to invest up to 10% of its public funds in digital assets with a market cap of over $750 billion (currently only BTC meets this criteria)

💡 Based on Bitcoin's seasonality (its average dynamics within a year), Bitwise expects growth until at least June 2025

👀 Binance is being raked out of bitcoins

Net outflow (the difference between deposits and withdrawals) is already 3829 BTC

🗓 Exactly on this day 15 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto explained Bitcoin's deflationary mechanism to the Bitcoin Talk forum audience

Satoshi also talked about how it would be possible to divide bitcoins (in case of a huge increase in price):

 "There are 6 more decimal places that are not displayed, for a total of 8 decimal places inside. We see 1.00 BTC, but inside it is 1.00000000 BTC. If there is a massive deflation in the future, the program may show more decimal places.

If working with small numbers becomes tedious, we can change the location of the decimal point. For example, if we move the decimal point 3 places, then if it was 1.00000 before, it will now display 1.000.00"

It was only 15 years ago, but Bitcoin fans are already studying these quotes like ancient Egyptian manuscripts.

Bitcoin’s Cycle High: Where Are We Headed?

In this issue, we’re diving deep into Bitcoin’s potential cycle high, using historical data, technical indicators, and pattern analysis to pinpoint key price levels. While nothing is guaranteed, the numbers suggest we haven’t hit the top yet—but we might be getting close.

Key Levels to Watch

Multiple indicators are pointing toward a target range of $140K to $160K, with a more optimistic scenario extending into the low $200Ks. Here’s why:

1. Pi Cycle Top Indicator:
   Historically, Bitcoin’s cycle highs have always reached or surpassed the long-term moving average (the white MA). Right now, this level sits around $145K and could creep up to $150K-$155K over the coming months. If Bitcoin follows previous cycles, this would be a reasonable target for a new high.
   

2. Historical Percentage Gains After Reclaiming the Moving Average:

   • 2013 cycle: 750% gain

   • 2017 cycle: 550% gain

   • 2021 cycle: 200% gain

   • Current cycle? If we assume another 50% reduction, that puts us in the 150K-215K range.
     

3. RSI Trends & Market Cycles:
   Bitcoin’s monthly RSI has always reached extreme highs during cycle peaks. Right now, it hasn’t yet reached those levels. If it follows prior cycles, an RSI peak around 85 would correspond to a price of approximately $165K.
   

4. Fibonacci Extensions & Cycle-to-Cycle Gains:

   • In past cycles, Bitcoin has peaked between the 2.0 and 2.272 Fibonacci extensions from the previous all-time high.

   • If that relationship holds, Bitcoin’s upper target could be in the low $200Ks—but diminishing returns suggest it’s more likely to top out before reaching those levels.

🪙 What This Means for Bitcoin’s Top

The data suggests that Bitcoin is in the final leg of this cycle. A reasonable base target lies between $140K and $160K, while a more bullish case points to $200K-$215K. However, each cycle has shown lower percentage gains, and it’s unlikely that we’ll see an explosive move far beyond these levels.

Of course, this is all based on historical trends—and markets evolve. There’s no guarantee that Bitcoin will follow these patterns exactly, and we could be massively wrong (which, let’s be honest, is part of the fun).

Either way, we’ll keep tracking the data and updating our insights as new developments unfold. Stay tuned, stay sharp, and let’s see where this cycle takes us. 🚀

AI Coins Crash, But Innovation Marches On

Rumors of an AI Coin massacre are circulating, with many charts resembling a pyramid-shaped collapse. As @MoonOverlord put it:

🗣️ "LA Vape Cabal said AI is the future and the tokens went -99.9% the next week."

But while prices retrace, the AI x Crypto sector is quietly gearing up for its next wave of innovation. Here’s what’s happening under the surface:

💰 Top Performer – Despite the selloff, @henlokart pumped after @HsakaTrades' "Hamster Racing 2.0" tweet.

🏢 Virtuals Meets with X in New York – Evan, leading agent discussions at X, is exploring new ways to support AI x Crypto. Expect more agent-related developments from X soon.

🤝 Virtuals Partners with Aiccelerate DAO – Financial and dev support incoming, helping accelerate AI agent development.

🔗 Virtuals Launches Its Partner Network (VPN) – Holding 2M $VIRTUALS lets participants share in partner project value and push AI Agent progress forward.

👛 Crossmint Enables Wallets for AI Agents – Standalone or integrated into launchpads, AI wallets are becoming a reality.

🔌 Zapier Expands AI Connectivity – You can now connect AI agents to over 7K apps. Meanwhile, SNAI is on a winning streak after joining NVIDIA’s startup program.

✅ Zerebro Becomes First Agentic StoryProtocol Validator – More agentic infrastructure development underway.

📺 Virtuals Den Episode 2 Launches Monday – $10K Virtuals funding up for grabs for early-stage projects.

📡 AIXBT Terminal Integrates X for Faster Responses – AI Agents are literally paying humans to dance—yes, that’s happening.

🏆 Sonic Hackathon Incoming – Judged by @danielesesta (DeFAI Protocol, HeyAnon). Keep an eye on ANON launching tomorrow.

🛠️ ElizaOS Agents Can Now Be Built with AskVenice APIs – No coding required. AI agent creation just got way more accessible.

🚀 The Bottom Line: AI x Crypto is far from dead. While market sentiment is shaky, infrastructure and adoption continue to expand. The next wave of AI-driven crypto projects is already taking shape.

Subscribe to Premium Newsletter to read the rest.