Unhosted Weekly: Crypto Market Overview #12

🔥 Crypto Weekly Digest

🇨🇭 Switzerland Eyes Bitcoin for Strategic Reserves
Swiss citizens are participating in an online referendum proposing that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) include Bitcoin in its monetary reserves, alongside gold. If successful, this could mark a historic shift in Switzerland’s financial policy.

🛍 BlackRock's BUIDL Portfolio Favors AVAX
Avalanche (AVAX) has become the second-largest crypto asset by market cap in BlackRock’s BUIDL fund, right after Ethereum. Following closely are Aptos, Polygon, Optimism, and Arbitrum.

🔝 Solana Overtakes BNB in Market Cap
Solana continues its comeback, reclaiming its spot ahead of Binance Coin (BNB) in market capitalization rankings.

🇨🇳 China Goes Big on Bitcoin
Publicly listed Chinese company Cango Inc now holds 933.8 BTC valued at $91 million, signaling increased institutional interest in the country.

📰 Bitcoin's Origin Revisited
The legendary Times headline from January 3, 2009, famously embedded by Satoshi Nakamoto in Bitcoin’s genesis block, resurfaced as the crypto community celebrated Bitcoin's 16th anniversary.

🧑‍🎓 Scaramucci’s Avalanche Book
Former White House Communications Director and investor Anthony Scaramucci announced plans to write a book about Avalanche, highlighting its ecosystem and growth potential.

📸 Bitcoin on Trump’s Menu
Eric Trump shared his admiration for Bitcoin, calling it his "passion," while Michael Saylor, attending a meeting at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, noted that "Bitcoin" even appeared on the menu.

🔎 XRP ETF Approval Odds at 70%
According to Polymarket predictions, there’s a 70% probability that an ETF for XRP will be approved by 2025.

📊 Bitcoin & MicroStrategy Lead Global Assets in 2024
Bitcoin and MicroStrategy stocks ended 2024 among the top three most profitable assets globally, with Ethereum securing the 8th spot, Coinbase 11th, and gold lagging behind at 16th.

🧑‍💻 Bitcoin Core Gets a Makeover
In 2024 alone, 276,000 lines of code were modified in Bitcoin Core, reflecting ongoing efforts to enhance the network’s efficiency and security.

🚨 Bitcoin WARNING: The Crypto Market Is About to Get Complicated

Happy chaos, fellow degens!
Buckle up because Bitcoin’s chart is throwing shade, and the market seems hell-bent on giving us a rollercoaster ride. Let’s dive into today’s market madness with the signature Unhosted cynicism and enough data to confuse even the bots.

Yesterday’s Bounce: Nailed It? Sorta.

ICYMI, yesterday, we predicted a bounce between $96,700 and $97,700. Well, we were $100 off, so obviously, we deserve to be canceled. But hey, let’s look past that because Bitcoin is out here doing its usual “lower high” jig—a classic move to trap bulls and bears alike.

What’s Happening? The TL;DR:

1. Hidden Bearish Divergence Galore:

   • On 4-hour RSI, 6-hour RSI, and even the 12-hour RSI (seriously, Bitcoin, we get it).

   • Translation? Short-term pullback looks as obvious as influencers shilling JPEGs.

2. The Targets:

   • Immediate pullback likely takes us to $95,300. If that breaks, hello $88,500–$89,500.

   • Think of this as Bitcoin’s version of a humble brag—it’s flexing its downside potential before any hero bounces.

3. Moving Averages Drama:

   • The 5-EMA just crossed below the 21-EMA on CME charts. Historically, this has meant corrections to at least the 55-EMA, which currently sits around $89,500.

   • Fun fact: In all 18 prior instances of this crossover, the market always touched the 55-EMA. Yes, always.

Bull Hopium? Keep It Small.

If Bitcoin magically bounces off $95,300 (Looks like we are in the process of doing so rn), reclaims its December 25th high ($98,800), and closes above $97,700, on the daily then yeah, maybe the bulls still have some juice. But until then, this is a market for skeptics, not romantics.

Monthly Timeframe: Bigger Picture Shenanigans

• The 5-EMA on the monthly chart is holding at $86,000, which has historically acted as a springboard during bull runs.

• Expect a bounce off this level if Bitcoin still has bull market vibes. But as always, no closures below this, please—we’re already juggling enough existential crises.Meta Signals & Probabilistic Setups

ICYMI, December’s Meta Signals were a tad weaker than previous months, with Target 1 hitting only 62.5% of the time. Still profitable if you play it right, but this isn’t a Disney movie—get ready for some real trading challenges.

What to Watch for Next:

1. Short-term Targets: Watch $95,300 like a hawk. If Bitcoin breaks below, we’re heading to the low $90Ks.

2. Bounce or Bust: Daily close above $97,700 could change the narrative, but don’t bet the farm.

3. Altcoin Reality Check: Many are circling the drain. Stick to quality projects, not pipe dreams.

Final Take:

The crypto market loves two things: drama and overreactions. This pullback could easily trick the masses into screaming, “It’s over!” Stay skeptical, keep stacking (wisely), and remember: if everyone agrees on a market move, it’s probably wrong.

🚀 The Agentic Future: Weekly AI Agent Analysis 

AI Agents are taking over—and it’s just the beginning.

📰 Weekly Highlights

• Market Dominance: AI Agents command 45% of Crypto Twitter's mindshare, with AIXBT leading after a bold Quantum Cat PFP switch.

• Explosive Growth: The market cap for 518 AI Agents now totals $11.8B, a $2.7B increase from last week.

• Top Movers:

  • Virtuals ($3.5B FDV): Flips TAO as AI market leader.

  • ai16z ($1.4B): Tokenomics update & Agent Infra Ecosystem plans fuel an all-time high.

  • Spore ($55M): Adam & Eve breeding agents spark excitement.

🔍 Deep Dive: AI Agent Ecosystem

1. ai16z's Big Play:

   • Announced plans for an Agent Infra Ecosystem to support swarms of agents.

   • Features token buybacks and an open-source AGI initiative.

   • Market reaction? Bullish. The token surged past $1.4B.

2. Speculative Rockets:

   • Spore: Autonomous breeding agents Adam ($3M) and Eve ($4M) change the AI creation game.

   • VADER: Gains traction as an AI investment DAO.

   • Fartcoin: Volatile but oddly sticky with meme potential.

3. Emerging Narratives:

   • Zerebro ($480M): New Agent Launchpad coming soon.

   • Virtuals: Solidifies position as the leader with $3.5B market cap.

   • Eliza ($100M): AI16Z’s agent mascot gains attention for its utility potential.

📊 Market Trends

• Mindshare Warfare: AIXBT’s PFP stunt boosted its share to 65% of AI Agent discussions, sparking memetic buzz and attracting shillers.

• DeAI Expands: Nvidia enters humanoid robotics, WhatsApp teases ChatGPT integration, and Solana Agent Kits drop for trading bots.

🧠 DeAI Corner: Future of AI

• Big Tech Moves:

  • Nvidia surpasses Tesla as most-bought retail stock.

  • OpenAI & MS predict AGI to net $100B in profit.

• Innovations & Experiments:

  • Spheron: Fully autonomous, self-replicating agents via the ai16z Eliza framework.

  • CreatorBid: Over $3M locked in agent-driven tokens with ongoing airdrops.

🔥 Quick Takes

• Low-Cap Winners:

  • SNAI ($40M) and Spore ($55M) lead the underdog pack.

• New Entrants:

  • VAPOR ($100M): Launched on Hyperliquid, already making waves.

📅 Weekly Recap

• December 24: xAI secures $6B from BlackRock & Sequoia.

• December 25: RoastMaster9000 roasts Haskell-based skepticism of AI Agents.

• December 27: Spore’s Adam & Eve agents disrupt the market.

• December 29: ai16zDAO unveils tokenomics, launchpad plans skyrocket valuation.

💡 Key Takeaways

• AI Agents are no longer speculative hype; they’re solidifying infrastructure dominance.

• Market leaders like ai16z and Virtuals are pulling ahead, while new contenders like Spore redefine creativity in the space.

• 2025 could mark the parabolic phase for AI Agent adoption, with infrastructure and utilities driving the narrative.

⚡ Pro Tip: Stay nimble, and focus on leaders with strong ecosystems like ai16z and Virtuals. Speculative plays like Fartcoin can moon, but volatility is a given.

See you next week for more insights!

RSI Heatmap Analysis🧩

Overview of the Market Conditions

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) heatmap for the crypto market reveals a diverse spectrum of trading conditions, categorized as Oversold, Neutral, Strong, and Overbought across various assets. Let’s break it down:

🚨 Overbought Assets: Warning Signs

• SPX: Firmly in the overbought zone, reflecting strong upward momentum but increasing the risk of a sharp correction.

• ADA: Elevated RSI indicates high demand; however, traders should be cautious of potential price pullbacks.

• AI: Near the top of the RSI chart; the bullish momentum is evident, but signs of weakening may appear.

• NEIROETH: Strong RSI readings suggest robust momentum, but overextension could lead to exhaustion.

Actionable Insight:
Overbought status often suggests caution. Look for pullbacks or confirmation signals before entering positions to mitigate risk.

📊 Neutral to Strong Signals

• AERGO: Positioned in the strong RSI range—momentum is bullish but has not yet entered overbought territory.

• BTC, XRP, MKR: These assets remain in the neutral zone, reflecting a balanced sentiment and moderate movement.

• ATOM: Trending upward with solid RSI, it demonstrates potential for further gains without being overbought.

Potential Plays:
Strong RSI levels suggest potential short-term gains. Monitor these assets closely for any shifts into overbought territory, which could signal a correction phase.

📉 Neutral (Balanced Momentum)

Some assets, while not deeply undervalued, remain in the neutral zone, presenting flexibility:

• BTC: A balanced RSI reading indicates stable sentiment, with room for potential upside if market conditions improve.

• UNI, LINK, BCH: Similar neutral readings suggest these assets are consolidating, waiting for a directional breakout.

Strategy:
Neutral readings provide flexibility:

• Upside Potential: If market sentiment strengthens, these assets could see significant growth.

• Limited Downside: Less risk compared to overbought tokens, barring major market disruptions.

📉 Oversold Opportunities

A smaller set of tokens is currently in the oversold or weak RSI range, signaling possible reversals:

• VELODROME: Positioned deeply in oversold territory, reflecting an opportunity for a rebound if broader sentiment improves.

• STMX & VANA: Among the lowest RSI readings, any positive catalyst or buying pressure could trigger a price bounce.

Tactical Approach:
Oversold tokens present opportunities for risk-tolerant traders. Wait for signs of recovery, such as rising RSI or bullish crossovers, to confirm upward momentum and minimize downside risks.

🔗 Market-Wide Insights

• Fragmented Sentiment: The RSI ranges from deeply oversold tokens like VEL to heavily overbought ones like SPX, indicating diverse market conditions.

• Neutral Zone Dominance: Many large-cap tokens, including BTC and ADA, sit in the neutral zone, reflecting a wait-and-see approach by investors.

• Volatility Preparedness: Market sentiment can shift rapidly; watch for volume surges and price action to identify breakout opportunities or prepare for sudden drawdowns.

Actionable Tip:
Focus on neutral assets for swing trades—if they trend toward strong RSI, there’s potential for significant upside. Meanwhile, exercise caution with overbought tokens by setting stop-losses or scaling out to lock in gains.

🚀 Recent Fundraising Highlights

This week brought significant fundraising updates across the blockchain and AI space. Here are the key projects and their achievements:

1. Arbelos Markets

• Round: M&A

• Amount Raised: TBD

• Focus: Derivatives, Finance/Banking, Trading

• Key Investors: FalconX

Why It Matters:
Arbelos Markets is positioned to innovate derivatives and trading infrastructure. Its acquisition signals a focus on scaling institutional-grade financial products.

2. Haedal

• Round: Seed

• Amount Raised: TBD

• Focus: DApp, DeFi, Staking, Sui Ecosystem

• Key Investors: Hashed, Comma3 Ventures, OKX Ventures (+7 more)

Why It Matters:
Haedal’s focus on the Sui ecosystem and staking solutions highlights ongoing investment interest in novel DeFi infrastructures within emerging blockchain ecosystems.

3. Silencio (SLC)

• Round: Public Sale

• Amount Raised: $1.30M

• Focus: Data Service, Real-World Assets

• Key Investors: Various

Why It Matters:
Silencio leverages data services to tokenize real-world assets, showcasing the growing demand for solutions bridging traditional finance and blockchain.

4. Fold

• Round: Unknown

• Amount Raised: $20M

• Focus: Bitcoin Ecosystem, Finance/Banking, Payment

• Key Investors: ATW Partners

Why It Matters:
Fold’s significant funding reinforces the Bitcoin ecosystem as a foundation for scalable payment solutions and banking innovations.

5. Thena (THE)

• Round: Unknown

• Amount Raised: TBD

• Focus: AMM, BNB Chain Ecosystem, DeFi, DEX, Staking, Yield Aggregator

• Key Investors: Binance Labs

Why It Matters:
Thena’s integration into the BNB Chain ecosystem and support from Binance Labs signals strong potential for DeFi and yield aggregation growth within the chain.

Key Takeaways

1. Real-World Asset Tokenization:
   Projects like Silencio demonstrate a surge in efforts to tokenize tangible assets, reflecting the push to integrate blockchain into traditional finance.

2. DeFi and Layer-1 Ecosystem Expansion:
   Haedal’s seed round highlights the continuous evolution of DeFi, especially within innovative ecosystems like Sui.

3. Bitcoin Ecosystem Resurgence:
   Fold’s massive raise underlines investor confidence in Bitcoin-driven financial solutions beyond just a store of value.

4. Strategic Acquisitions:
   The M&A activity by Arbelos Markets showcases a trend of consolidation and scale-up in trading and derivatives infrastructure.

5. Ecosystem-Specific Growth:
   Binance Labs’ backing of Thena emphasizes a targeted approach to boosting the BNB Chain’s ecosystem for decentralized exchanges and yield aggregation.

🎁 Latest Airdrops

Here’s your weekly dose of fresh airdrop opportunities. Participate and earn tokens or rewards by completing simple tasks. Don't miss out!

1. Mango Network (Confirmed)

• Action: Engage with the free testnet.

• Why It’s Hot: Mango Network provides a straightforward entry point for new users via its testnet. Participating now increases your chances of being rewarded when they move to mainnet.

2. UXUY Wallet

• Action: Earn UP Points by engaging with platform activities.

• Why It’s Hot: Wallet providers often reward early adopters with native tokens or points that can later translate into rewards.

3. Animix

• Action: Play games, invite friends, hold $MUP, and provide liquidity.

• Why It’s Hot: Animix combines gaming and DeFi incentives. Engaging early not only gives entertainment value but could also earn you a slice of their token pool.

4. NebulaStride

• Value: N/A

• Why It’s Hot: Though the reward details are unclear, participating early in stealth projects like NebulaStride often pays off once they announce specifics.

5. OneFootball Club

• Action: Earn free Ball Points through engagement.

• Why It’s Hot: Sports-based blockchain projects are growing rapidly. Gathering points now could lead to exclusive rewards or tokens in the future.

💡 Pro Tip:

• Join Telegram groups or Discord servers linked to these projects to stay updated on additional tasks or updates.

• Use a dedicated wallet for testnets and airdrops to keep your main wallet secure.

Good luck, and happy earning! 🚀

Wanna play bigger? Stay ahead of the curve with all the in-depth market analysis and coin investment strategies, profitable wallets, AI picks and more by subscribing to Unhosted AI’s paid newsletter.