Bitcoin, Gold & Liquidity

Why April 2025 Could Mark a Historic Decoupling

Author

Unhosted AG
April 21, 2025

Key takeaway: Bitcoin is grinding higher while global stock indices sink. Liquidity gauges are turning north, gold is on an unprecedented tear, and major buyers—from Michael Saylor to Japanese listed firms—are scooping up BTC. For the first time in years, the “safe‑haven” narrative is starting to eclipse the old “risk‑asset” tag.

1. From Angst to Acceleration

A month ago sentiment was grim: tariffs, bond‑market wobbles, Nasdaq weakness. This Monday the mood flipped. Why?

  • Breakout confirmed: BTC smashed a four‑week down‑trend, reclaimed the 50‑week MA, and is now within ~3 % of the pivotal $90 k resistance.

  • Gold in melt‑up mode: Spot gold ripped 7 % in ten days; Bitcoin historically lags gold’s surges by ~90–100 days.

  • Stocks in the toilet: The S&P is down 7 % in that same window—evidence Bitcoin may finally decouple from “tech beta.”

“BTC is rising on a day equities look catastrophic. That’s structurally different from the past two years.”

CTO Larsson

2. Liquidity Is Whispering—Loudly

Global M2 turned up first in China, then Japan, then the EU. Marty sees it as the “first punch” in an undeclared financial war:

Region

M2 Inflection

Take‑away

China

March spike

Likely selling U.S. Treasuries, buying gold/BTC

Japan

April jump

Fresh stimulus; JPY slide fuels carry trades

EU

Early April

Sovereign support programs quietly restart

The U.S. prints its next official M2 update on 22 April. If it joins the up‑sloping club, “the biggest pump ever” thesis (BTC follows liquidity with a ~3‑month lag) gains fresh ammo.

Global Liquidity Spikes

3. Macro Stress: 10‑Year Yields vs. DXY

For the first time in decades, rising Treasury yields are not supporting the dollar—classic crisis behavior. If the 10‑year pushes past 5 % without Fed intervention, markets expect Jerome Powell to blink.

  • Dollar Index (DXY): Broken trend support.

  • 10 Y UST yields: Hovering near 4.4 % after a violent spike.

  • Fed “dog‑whistle”: Officials now admit they might step in to buy bonds—a 180° from 2021’s hawkish pivot.

DXY Crashing.. Shows Stress In The Market

4. Who’s Buying? From Dolphins to Whales

  • MicroStrategy: +6,556 BTC ($567 M) at $84.8 k; paper gain already >$25 M.

  • Metaplanet (Japan): Added another ¥4 B (~$26 M) worth of BTC.

  • “Dolphins” (100–1,000 BTC wallets): Cohort grew 14 % in six months—now the largest non‑ETF holder group.

“Corporate copy‑trade is real,” says Mando. “Every firm that goes ‘MicroStrategy‑mode’ removes new float—days after the halving.”

5. Ethereum’s Race Against Time

Vitalik’s weekend blog proposes migrating the EVM to a RISC‑V ZK‑friendly engine—but timelines stretch into 2029–2032. Meanwhile:

  • Solana flipped ETH in staked market‑cap, controls ~70 % of daily retail volumes, and just brought Fire‑Dancer to mainnet testing.

  • Galaxy Digital quietly moved large SOL tranches off Binance, stoking ETF rumors.

  • ETH/BTC printed fresh cycle lows despite Vitalik’s announcement.

6. The 60‑Day Setup

Signal to watch

Bullish trigger

Bearish trigger

BTC daily close

> $90 k re‑enters 2024 range

< $82 k fake‑out

Global M2

U.S. joins China/EU/Japan upswing

Flat U.S. print

Gold

Holds above $2,450 oz

Fails to confirm breakout

ETH/BTC

Reclaims 0.052 while BTC rises

Slides to 0.045

7. Portfolio Posture

  • Core stack: Cold‑storage BTC untouched.

  • Trading sleeve: Added on the trend‑line break; will pyramid above $90 k.

  • Alts: Light until BTC dominance tops; stalking SOL, SUI, DePIN infra, selective AI plays. No meme‑chasing—inflation of supply is brutal.

8. Final Word: “Unhosted Loves a Crisis”

For 15 years Bitcoin has spiked when conventional hedges creak. Today:

  • Gold is behaving as if “the world ends tomorrow.”

  • Stocks telegraph recession.

  • Liquidity gauges tilt north.

  • Bitcoin just ignored a red Nasdaq session and followed bullion instead.

If $90 k breaks—and the Fed’s dog‑whistle becomes a printing press—this could be the launch‑pad for Bitcoin’s largest move of the cycle. Plan your trades before the fireworks, not after.

BTC Finally Decoupling..

Stay safe, stay nimble, and as always: stack sats.

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